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Nightmare Scenario: Chairman Specter (D-Penn.)

I’m late to the news of the day: Arlen Specter says he’s a Democrat now, and is going to run as a Democrat in 2010.  Woohoo!  Right?  Well, maybe.  Specter claims he’s making his switch based on principle — that the Republican party moved to the right, and also, by extension, so did the Democrats.  He says he’s not going to change his positions, so he won’t be a reliable 60th vote on many issues.  Matt Yglesias summarizes some Wonk Room posts on Specter’s positions:

On labor rights, as you know, he’s flip-flopped and now stands firm against employee free choice. On climate, Specter has tended to join forces with moderate Democrats in undermining effective action to tackle the climate crisis.

On health care, Specter’s record looks quite a bit better on a number of specific issues. Still, there’s a bloc of senators out there who sound generally supportive of health care reform, but seem opposed to every possible way of paying for comprehensive reform. To me, Specter’s “no” vote on the 2010 budget gives me some worries on that score as well.

Long story short, while Specter’s clearly not the most conservative guy in the senate, he’s not much of a progressive either. The extent to which the right is glad to be rid of the guy is a sign of how far-right mainstream conservatism has gone.

The question today really isn’t whether Specter is conservative or progressive.  The question should be, “Is Arlen Specter a Democrat?”  The answer is no.
It’s impossible to come up with a universally accepted, exhaustive definition of what it means to be a member of either party, though if we worked together, we could come up with a general list of issues that tend to be advanced by Democrats.  Currently, that would include national health care, support for labor, stimulative spending during recessions, action on climate change, and a general lean toward being pro-choice.  Take any one of these issues and interview Arlen Specter, and you might find his position to be closer to the traditional, mean Democrat position than the mean Republican stance right now.  I’m not saying look at his votes — I’m saying, look at how Arlen Specter defines himself, and you will probably find a guy that’s a little closer to the D than the R at this moment. 

Is self-identification enough to make you part of the party?  If I say I’m a Democrat while I vote against EFCA and work pretty hard to block the president’s budget, in my mind I’m still a Democrat, but my actions… my actions are not.

Arlen Specter is, at this point in his career, an Indepedent.  He doesn’t belong in the current Republican party — Pennsylvania’s Republican voters could tell you that.  But he doesn’t belong in the Democratic Caucus, either.  If Arlen Specter gets a leadership position — a committee chairmanship, say, or a sub-committee — will he, as chairman, represent the interests of the Democratic party en total?  Or will he represent his own, Independent interests?

This isn’t idle speculation: The agreement Senate Majority Leader Reid and Specter have worked out would give Specter rank equivalent to having been a Democrat all along.  To give you an idea of how crazy that is, it means that Arlen Specter now outranks John Kerry in the Democratic Caucus.  There are seven Democratic Senators (Byrd, Kennedy, Inouye, Leahy, Baucus, Levin, and Dodd)1 that have more seniority than Arlen Specter.  One of them has already stepped down from the leadership (Byrd); two others seem unlikely to still be holding leadership positions after 2010 (Kennedy, Dodd).  Specter currently sits on the Judiciary Committee, where he’ll still be second to Patrick Leahy, and Appropriations, where Daniel Inouye has him beat.  But one guesses he might fight for leadership of a sub-committee — Tom Harkin’s Labor, Health, and Education Subcommittee might be a tasty plum, and Specter has him beat, as Mike Lillis at the Washington Indepedent noted today.

Who doesn’t want Democrat Arlen Specter making decisions about which labor bills get to the floor?

I’m happy to welcome a new Democrat to the fold.  But if he’s joining the party, he’d better be a part of the party — the national party.  Otherwise, this deal Reid worked out to maintain Specter’s leadership position is going to come back and haunt us all.

1 Doesn’t everyone have a Senate seniority Excel spreadsheet handy?